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CHINA'S ENERGY STRATEGY PLANNING BASED ON PREDICTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION AND STRUCTURE
ZHAO Zhicheng, LIU Qunyi
Resources & Industries    2019, 21 (6): 1-8.   DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20191206.007
Abstract148)      PDF(pc) (4651KB)(110)       Save
Energy consumption, production and structure mark a nation's energy development strategy. This paper uses ARIMA model to predict China's energy consumption and production in a short term, and applies Markov to forecast the change in China's energy consumption structure, and studies on cases the execution of China's energy strategic planning combined with China's “13th Five Years Plan”. Energy consumption may reach the expected objectives by the end of “13th Five Years Plan”, but energy production will be insufficient. Reduction in coal use and increase in non-fossil energy could be expected, but gas consumption is less. Self-supply of energy will be improved to 2025, coal use proportion in energy consumption structure will further decreasing with a slowly increasing in gas use. This paper presents suggestions on controlling gross energy consumption, increasing energy efficiency, boosting supply of oil-gas and non-fossil resources, and focusing on a sound development of gas market.
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